- Title
- Estimating the future global dose demand for measles–rubella microarray patches
- Creator
- Ko, Melissa; Malvolti, Stefano; Meltzer, Martin I.; Masresha, Balcha Girma; Pastor, Desiree; Durrheim, David N.; Giersing, Birgitte; Hasso-Agopsowicz, Mateusz; Cherian, Thomas; Mantel, Carsten; Biellik, Robin; Jarrahian, Courtney; Menozzi-Arnaud, Marion; Amorij, Jean-Pierre; Christiansen, Hans; Papania, Mark J.
- Relation
- Frontiers in Public Health Vol. 10, Issue 16 January 2023, no. 1037157
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1037157
- Publisher
- Frontiers Research Foundation
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2023
- Description
- Background: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Methods: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030–2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. Results: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. Conclusions: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.
- Subject
- rubella; microarray patch; microneedle; demand forecast; demand and supply; measles; SDG 3; Sustainable Development Goals
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1481055
- Identifier
- uon:50631
- Identifier
- ISSN:2296-2565
- Rights
- x
- Language
- eng
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