- Title
- Quantitative explosive risk assessment of blast and fragmentation hazards
- Creator
- Stewart, Mark G.; Netherton, Michael D.
- Relation
- 12th International Conference on Shock & Impact Loads on Structures. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Shock & Impact Loads on Structures (Singapore 15-16 June, 2017) p. 97-108
- Publisher
- CI-Premier
- Resource Type
- conference paper
- Date
- 2017
- Description
- One of the key questions for anyone interested in explosives is if a particular mass of explosive detonates, how far away does someone need to be such that they are considered ‘safe’. A comprehensive answer to "How far is safe enough?" comes from an understanding of probability and risk related to post-detonation energy-distribution, and, in particular, modelling the blast-wave's path and the trajectory of explosively-induced fragments. The paper will describe how probabilistic safety and hazard modelling of blast and fragmentation can better inform a Quantitative Explosive Risk assessment (QERA). A QERA may be used to define an explosive safety distance based on the risk of explosive hazards being less than a societal acceptable risk. The concepts are illustrated with hypothetical scenarios at a generic Australian explosives ordnance (EO) site. In one example we demonstrate that current, deterministically based, regulations (within Australia) may be overly conservative. Another example demonstrates the significant effect that post-detonation blast load variability has on fatality risks.
- Subject
- risk; probability; explosive ordnance; safety; blast
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1391525
- Identifier
- uon:33243
- Identifier
- ISBN:9789811128509
- Language
- eng
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