- Title
- How modelling could contribute to reforming primary care-tweaking "the ecology of medical care" in Australia
- Creator
- Sturmberg, Joachim P.; McDonnell, Geoff M.
- Relation
- AIMS MEDICAL SCIENCE Vol. 3, Issue 3, p. 298-311
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/medsci.2016.3.298
- Publisher
- American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS Press)
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2016
- Description
- Background: The Australian Ecology of Medical Care indicates that 255/1,000 Australians consult a GP 1.8 times/month (466 consultations/month) resulting in 42 specialist, 1.4 ED and 1.9 hospital referrals, 478 prescriptions, 220 pathology and 48 radiology tests, costing the Government $ 72,009 (2012–13). Government believes this to be unsustainable and controllable by setting price signals. Objectives: To investigate the impact of ‘small changes’ to health service utilisation and/or resource use. Method: Modelling the impact of increases and decreases to healthcare utilisation/resource use over a 5-year period. Results: Strategies targeting only one variable had a small and linear impact on healthcare expenditure (± 0.6–7.2%); combining changes had an exponential effect, achieving an up to 15% reduction or an over 20% rise in expenditure. Discussion: Change invariably results in trade-offs; modelling is a tool that can provide a basis to engage in shared discussions about the ‘yes, but/yes, and’ considerations of reform propositions
- Subject
- ecology of medical care; modelling; primary care reform; leadership; complex adaptive systems
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1345835
- Identifier
- uon:29728
- Identifier
- ISSN:2375-1576
- Rights
- © 2016, Joachim P Sturmberg, et al., licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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