- Title
- Transient climate response in the DICE integrated assessment model of climate-economy
- Creator
- Hafeez, Salem; Weller, Steven R.; Kellett, Christopher M.
- Relation
- 2016 Australian Control Conference (AuCC). Proceedings of the 2016 Australian Control Conference (AuCC) (Newcastle, Australia 3 - 4 November, 2016) p. 282-287
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/AUCC.2016.7868203
- Publisher
- Engineers Australia
- Resource Type
- conference paper
- Date
- 2016
- Description
- Integrated assessment models (IAMs) couple the interdependent dynamics of geophysical and economic systems. By solving an optimal control problem for a nonlinear, time-varying system, IAMs enable the determination of economically optimal pathways for emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Central to any IAM is a climate model capturing the dynamic response of global surface temperature to changes in net downward radiative forcing due to the atmospheric accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling under a scenario in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1% yr-1, plays a central role in quantifying the economic impacts of climate change on policy-relevant timescales. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based methodology for computing the parameters of a climate model in such a way that the resulting model exhibits a specified TCR. The methodology developed in this paper targets the climate model parameterization employed in DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), a widely studied IAM for which TCR is only indirectly specified. Results reported herein enable policymakers using DICE to compute optimal CO2 emissions pathways which directly reflect the TCR of state-of-the-art climate models documented in the most recent(Fifth) Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
- Subject
- meteorology; atmospheric modeling; computational modeling; economics; ocean temperature; global warming; carbon
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1343463
- Identifier
- uon:29177
- Identifier
- ISBN:9781922107909
- Language
- eng
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