http://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/services/Feed ${session.getAttribute("locale")} 5 http://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/uon:9003 We use a simple dynamic hazard model with time-varying covariates to develop a bankfailure early warning model, and then test the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of this model relative to a simple one-period Probit model, such as is used by U.S. banking regulators. By incorporating time-varying covariates, our model enables us to utilize macroeconomic variables, which cannot be incorporated into in a one-period model. We find that our model significantly outperforms the simple Probit model with and without the macroeconomic variables. The improvement in accuracy comes from the time-varying bank-specific variables. [Finalised 2010 title: 'Is hazard or probit more accuarate in predicting financial distress? : evidence from U.S. bank failures'] 2011-09-22T02:20:02.277Z ]]>