The paper will assess how increases in C0₂ levels will affect carbonation-induced damage and safety loss to prestressed concrete structures. Probabilistic methods are used as there is significant uncertainty and variability of deterioration mechanisms, material properties, dimensions, strength and load modelling and environments. The time-dependent structural reliability analysis will predict the probability of corrosion initiation and the probability of failure (collapse) of a typical prestressed concrete AASHTO bridge girder over the next 100 years. Results are presented for a range of future C0₂ emissions scenarios. For the worst case scenario the probability of corrosion initiation is 460% higher than the best mitigation scenario. There is thus a significant likelihood of corrosion damage that will need costly and disruptive repairs during the service life of many concrete structures. For the worst case scenario the probability of failure is 10% higher than that for the best mitigation scenario.
20th Australasian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials (ACMSM20). Futures in Mechanics of Structures and Materials: Proceedings of the 20th Australasian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials (Toowoomba, Qld 2-5 December, 2008) p. 559-565