A statistical analysis of explosive blast-loading field (test) data has revealed a high level of variability of peak reflected pressure, impulse and time of positive phase duration for repeatable tests where variability would be expected to be a minimum. The model error (accuracy) of a widely used predictive blast-load model is also assessed. A probabilistic model of blast-loading is then developed that considers variability and/or uncertainty of explosive mass, the net equivalent quantity of an explosive in terms of TNT mass, stand-off distance, air temperature, air pressure, inherent variability and model error. This type of statistical and probabilistic analysis is essential for structural reliability analysis of structures subject to explosive blast-loading where load variability is an important contributor to damage and safety risks. The probabilistic blast-load model was used to calculate the probability of exceeding TM5-1300 design values of blast-load. It was found that the TM5-1300 design value for peak reflected pressure is non-conservative.
8th International Conference on Shock & Impact Loads on Structures, Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Shock & Impact Loads on Structures, Vol. - (Adelaide, SA 02-04 December, 2009) p. 467-474