Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/919862

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Title
A high-resolution hierarchical space-time framework for single storm events and its application for short-term rainfall forecasting
Author/Creator
Qin, Juan;  Leonard, Michael;  Kuczera, George;  Thyer, Mark;  Metcalfe, Andrew;  Lambert, Martin
Institution
The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Engineering & Built Environment, School of Engineering
Description
A new phenomenological hierarchical stochastic model is developed to robustly simulate rainfall fields consistent with 10-minute 1-km² pixel radar images. The hierarchical framework has three levels. The first level simulates a latent Gaussian random field conditioned on the previous time step. In the second level, first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models are used to describe the within-storm variations of the level-one parameters that control the evolution of rain fields. The third level is designed for simulation of storm sequences. Calibration and validation of the first two levels using an observed storm event (typical in Sydney, Australia) demonstrate that this two-level model produces realistic sequences of rain images which capture the physical hierarchical structure of clusters, patchiness of rain fields and the persistence exhibited during storm development. A variety of important statistics are adequately reproduced at both 10-minute and 1-hour time scales over various space scales. Application of this model to short-term rainfall forecasting is also presented.
Relation
Joint International Convention of 8th IAHS Scientific Assembly and 37th IAH Congress. New Approaches to Hydrological Prediction in Data-Sparse Regions: Proceedings of Symposium HS.2 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and The International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) (Hyderabad, India 6-12 September, 2009) p. 330-340
Relation
http://iahs.info/redbooks/333.htm#4
Date
2009
Publisher
IAHS Press
Keyword(s)
stochastic space-time rainfall;  hierarchical framework;  high-resolution;  block Toeplitz;  circulant decomposition;  generalized moments;  parametric bootstrap;  short-term forecasting
Resource Type
conference paper
Identifier
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/919862
Identifier
ISBN:9781907161049
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"A high-resolution hierarchical space-time framework for single storm events and its application for short-term rainfall forecasting"
 
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