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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/28848

Title
Multidecadal variability in coastal eastern Australian flood data
Author/Creator
Micevski, Tom;  Franks, Stewart W.;  Kuczera, George
Description
This study examines the applicability of the assumption in flood frequency analysis that flood peaks are independent and identically distributed. It investigates the effect and extent of multidecadal variability for mainly coastal, eastern Australian flood data. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a climate index which describes this long-term variability. The flood data were stratified by IPO value and flood frequency analyses performed. Analysis of the stratified flood distributions revealed that the IPO modulated the flood risk in New South Wales and southern Queensland, with flood quantiles being increased by a factor of approximately 1.7 during IPO negative periods, whereas little effect was detected for sites in north-east Queensland located approximately north of the Tropic of Capricorn. This IPO modulation of flood risk may be explained by multidecadal movements of regional convergence zones. Neglect of the IPO dependence on flood risk can lead to significant bias in long-run flood risk.
Relation
Journal of Hydrology Vol. 327, Issue 1-2, p. 219-225
Publisher Link
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.017
Date
2006
Publisher
Elsevier
Keyword(s)
flood frequency analysis;  decadal variations;  interdecadal pacific oscillation;  pacific decadal oscillation;  nonstationarity
Resource Type
journal article
Identifier
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/28848
Identifier
ISSN:0022-1694
Reviewed
Reviewed
 
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Subject
"Journal of Hydrology"
 
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