Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/935735

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Title
Water resource management in a changing climate: can we afford to wait for the climate models to give us the answer?
Author/Creator
Kiem, Anthony S.;  Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.
Institution
The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Science & Information Technology, School of Environmental and Life Sciences
Description
Eastern Australian rainfall (and streamflow) is related to a number of large-scale climate drivers, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). However, identifying the process(es) causing hydroclimatic variability (on seasonal and longer time-scales) in eastern Australia, and many other parts of the world, is not a clear cut exercise. As a result the leadtime, accuracy, precision, and regional scale relevance of hydroclimatic forecasts is limited. Compounding this is the uncertainty surrounding the impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change – how will anthropogenic influences act to alter the already significant impacts associated with climate variability in eastern Australia? Accordingly, there is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, could aid in attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g. flood, drought, bushfire etc.). Further discussion also focuses on the tendency of funding agencies to support climate model applications (or projects that simply produce predictions) rather than development of science or evaluation/validation of assumptions/models that are used to make the ‘predictions’. This problem needs to be addressed if we are to bridge the gap between climate science and the practically useful information that stakeholders require.
Relation
Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference 2010: Meeting the Challenges from Catchment to Coast. Proceedings of Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference 2010: Meeting the Challenges from Catchment to Coast (Melbourne 29 September - 1 October, 2010)
Relation
http://www.climatechange2010.org
Date
2010
Publisher
ICMS / Engineers Australia
Keyword(s)
climate change;  rainfall;  water resource management;  climate science;  hydroclimatic forecasts
Resource Type
conference paper
Identifier
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/935735
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Subject
"Water resource management in a changing climate: can we afford to wait for the climate models to give us the answer?"
 
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