The paper will assess how increases in atmospheric C0₂ levels will affect carbonation-induced corrosion damage and safety loss to reinforced concrete structures. Probabilistic methods are used as there is significant uncertainty and variability of atmospheric C0₂ levels, deterioration mechanisms, material properties, dimensions, strength and loading. The time-dependent structural reliability analysis will predict the probability of corrosion initiation, mean proportion of corrosion (cover) damage and the probability of failure (collapse) of typical reinforced concrete beams over the next 100 years. For the worst case emissions scenario the mean proportion of corrosion damage is up to 540% higher than the best C0₂ emission mitigation scenario. For the worst case scenario the probability of flexural failure is only 6% higher than that observed for the best mitigation scenario. If the worst emissions scenario is viewed as the most likely scenario then increasing design cover by approximately 3-18 mm may be needed to ameliorate corrosion damage.
10th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR2009). Safety, Reliability and Risk of Structures, Infrastructures and Engineering Systems: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR2009) (Osaka, Japan 13-17 September, 2009) p. 3263-3270