The paper proposes a risk-based framework for assessment of economic damage caused by tropical cyclones due to the increases in wind speeds resulting from climate change. In addition to the direct losses, cyclones cause tremendous social disruption for extended periods of time. The framework contains the following key ingredients- probabilistic modeling ofthe occurrence and intensity of cyclone, time-dependent increase in annual maximum wind speed from global warming, and vulnerability function to represent the economic risks and losses conditioned in wind speed. Regional dynamics including increasing house numbers built with different building codes is integrated into the framework. Residential construction in North Queensland in Australia is chosen to demonstrate the potential impact of climate change on wind damage estimation from a regional perspective. The implications of climate change on building codes and construction practice are discussed. This framework can form the basis for improvements in construction practices and building codes to adapt to potential impacts of climate change, appropriate underwriting by the insurance industry, and sociopolitical response ofthe community to wind hazards.
10th International Conference On Structural Safety And Reliability (ICOSSAR 2009), Safety, Reliability and Risk of Structures, Infrastructures and Engineering Systems: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR2009) (Osaka, Japan 13-17 September, 2009) p. 3144-3151